By Adam Mendelevitz, for Next In Line

Wesley Leggett (center) after scoring the game-winning goal against NCFC last year. Will he do it again?

With a point in hand, Loudoun United comes back home to play a game on Saturday afternoon. This game will be a nice appetizer for the main course at Audi Field, where DC United will play Inter Messi CF, led by its star Lionel Messi, the face of the Messi League of Soccer. People have paid hundreds or even over a thousand dollars a ticket to see him take on DCU, and I’m sure nothing bad will happen that will make the fairweather fans suddenly wish they hadn’t spent that much money on tickets. Nope. Nothing at all.

That said, lend me your ears. I come here not to bury MLS, but to look ahead to Loudoun United’s next matchup. Fresh off a difficult draw where the team performed above expectations, spending over ⅔ of the match a man down and still leaving with a point, Loudoun will now turn its attention to North Carolina FC. The former USL1 League Champions who went from grabbing the Wooden Spoon to grabbing the Cup in a dramatic turnaround of just one year from 2022 to 2023. Fresh off their Cup run, they now set their sights on the USL Championship, but will Loudoun trample on those hopes in their own home opener? Read on below!

Head-to-Head History

Admittedly there isn’t much history to speak of with Loudoun and NCFC. Setting aside the fact that Loudoun only started playing in 2019 (where they split a win each), the matches that NCFC was supposed to play with Loudoun in 2020 were all canceled due to COVID reasons back when we took the virus seriously rather than just seeing it as an affront to Business As Usual. The following year, NCFC went down to USL1 so there were no more regular matches.

However, they did meet in the US Open Cup in the Second Round, playing at Segra Field on April 5, 2023. I wasn’t able to watch that game, but Zach Ryan promised us in an interview before the match that Loudoun would win so I could see the next one. Thanks to a Wes Leggett goal in Extra Time, he kept his promise, and Loudoun would move on to the next round.

Their Season so far

Keeping in mind the 2024 USLC season is only one week old, NCFC has come out with a disappointing opener, a scoreless draw to the Charleston Battery. The only notable stats from that game include 1 shot on goal combined (NCFC’s goalkeeper, Jake McGuire, saved it), two yellow cards for NCFC, and a lopsided possession ratio of 1:2 in Charleston’s favor. So there’s not much yet we can deduce from that performance.

Know Your Opponent

NCFC does have a few names that locals here might recognize. Starting in the previous game were former Loudoun CB Bryce Washington and former DCU midfielder Collin Martin. In addition, former Richmond Kickers veteran Akira Fitzgerald acts as a sort of goalkeeper coach plus a third option if they need one between the sticks.

Going further down the roster, NCFC has a solid CM in Jacori Hayes, arriving from San Antonio FC, though he didn’t take the field in the opener. Rodrigo Da Costa, a terrifying attacker who had an over 50% chance of scoring any given night when he took the field for Memphis 901 last year, lines up on the RW. Raheem Sommersall, a solid DM from the St. Kitts & Nevis national team who can disrupt an enemy attack and jump the passing lanes, anchors the midfield. And then there’s Paco Craig, a solid workhorse and USLC veteran, holding on to the Captain’s Armband as he does his job with the three-back setup.

Potential NCFC lineup

This is the 3-4-3 lineup that NCFC coach John Bradford went with last week, despite usually relying on a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-4-2 variant for most of last year. Also puzzling that some stars from last year were left on the bench. Perhaps Bradford decided to try experimenting with the new personnel at his disposal, or thought he could catch Charleston’s tactics off-guard. If he decides to stick with this formation, then Loudoun’s Coach Martin will already have a leg up sticking with his own previous tactics…

Potential Loudoun Lineup

…returning to the 4-2-3-1, with Leggett replacing the suspended Francois. If Tingey is still recovering from his knock in the previous game, Dambrot will probably start in his place. Outside of that, I don’t foresee many other changes to the Starting 11 that took the field in San Antonio last week.

The way this formation is set up, ideally, will have McCabe and Skundrich frustrating NCFC’s midfielders, while the backline absorbs their attackers who get through. Then they can lob the ball up forward to somewhat lighter defense. Not that you can discount Craig and Somersall tracking back on defense, but if Loudoun’s front 4 can swarm NCFC’s final third before they get set, and if they get more shots on target, it’ll be a night full of fireworks to ring in the new season at Segra Field.

Three Questions

Who will handle the rock? Both teams in their season openers were on the lower end of the possession time, and both came away with a draw. Someone’s gotta hold onto the ball though. Will we see some fast-paced attacking on both sides, or will they slow down, set up their formation, and try to goad the other side into making a mistake?
Have we learned to chill out? Getting five cards, including a red, in the previous game already makes things tense. Arguments about referees aside, has Loudoun’s coaching staff impressed upon the players this week to not let their anger get out of control, and not to rise to the bait, before they hurt their own team?
Is the cavalry coming? Not that we need to panic about our roster just one week into the season. All I’m saying is that we have confirmation that Riley Bidois is on the team. Meanwhile there’s confusion on where the Ethiopian #10 we were promised is right now, and there’s at least two DCU Academy graduates who have been training with Loudoun recently, on top of the ones who subbed into the season opener. I know there’s only so much space on the bench and the field, but where are they?

Prediction

I’m predicting a fast-paced game with lots of shots and dramatic plays, some heated debate between players and refs and other players on the field, and eventually the smoke will clear with a 3-2 victory for the home side. Feel free to print this preview out and rub it in my face at the next Stampede gathering if none of the above actually happens.