Mar 30, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando City midfielder Dagur Dan Thorhallsson (17) dribbles against the New York Red Bulls in the second half at Inter&Co Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports
The MLS season rolls right along, and DC United are finding themselves sitting in a relatively good position. They welcome Orlando City into town, who DC have historically gotten the better of in recent years. They are also facing them at an opportune moment. Let’s talk about it.
Opponent Overview
Orlando City had a very good year last year. Coming off their Open Cup victory the previous season, they managed to nab second in the East in 2023, but failed to really make much noise come playoff time. However, with another season and some very good talent it looked to be a year where they could launch themselves into elite in MLS.
Well, it hasn’t worked out like that. Orlando find themselves at the bottom of the East thus far. they have won just one game out of six and look like a shell of their former selves last year. They have tried to bring in a major creator in Luis Muriel who has occupied the second forward spot for the team and they also went and grabbed former Seattle superstar Nicholas Lodeiro as a creator. Although Lodeiro is 35, he still has plenty of juice and creative ability to give in MLS. However so far, neither has looked like the answer for Orlando. Muriel has only mustered a 1.0 xA figure and a .6 xG figure. Loderio is around the same with just a .8 xA and .7 xG. It is a far cry from some of the numbers he put up in Seattle. Muriel has yet to register a single goal or assist, and Loderio has registered just one goal.
Watching their previous game against New York it becomes pretty clear that something isn’t working. The team looks to be attempting to replicate what Columbus are doing. They move the ball slowly with deliberate passing. However, unlike Columbus, there doesn’t appear to be a major talent like Rossi or Cucho who can punish teams. They have talented players, but it all just feels out of sync right now for Orlando Too many times Muriel or Loderio got the ball in dangerous spot only to have a blocked final pass or inaccurate pass kills the opportunity. They generated no major chances against the Red Bulls and rely on a fluke own goal to escape with a point at home. Despite surrendering much of the possession, New York never looked uncomfortable in the game. Orlando struggled to generate clear cut opportunities and never really found. They only generated .7 xG and surrendered 1.8 xG in their game against New York.
The only player that looked even remotely dangerous for Orlando was Duncan McGuire. After quite possibly the wildest window that saw a move to Europe fall apart apart after Blackburn submitted late paperwork, McGuire finds himself back at Orlando trying to keep his value high and earn a move elsewhere. So far that hasn’t gone to plan. He has only scored two goals and the teams struggles to cerate effective chances is hurting his output. In fact the only semi decent chance for Orlando came when McGuire got the ball on the dribble and managed to use his speed an athleticism to get around a New York defender and rush on to goal. It was a half a chance but did display how dangerous McGuire can still be for Orlando.
Defensively they have also regressed. They have surrendered just 8.0 xG, but have given up 11 goals. Part of that is at the feet Pedro Gallese who hasn’t been near the goalkeeper he was last season. On top of that, we know that DC United has been a bit of a boogey man for Gallese. Time and time again, DC United has punished him and Orlando. We have talked about DC United’s xG being well above their output. Here it could be the reverse and we get to see if DC can capitalize on a struggling team.
DC United Storylines to Watch
Can DC continue to dominate games and fully capitalize?
The storyline this year has been DC United know who they are and have showed it in just about every game. They have been the better side in most games, but haven’t fully capitalized. This presents an opportunity. They have a team in the red on xGA to GA, and have struggled to fully put together much of a threat. This is a team that is definitively playing poorly and playing below DC’s standard. Playoff teams punish teams at home like this, and DC needs to do the same.
Matti Peltola or Jackson Hopkins?
There was a bit of a surprise last week that saw Jackson Hopkins step in for Matti Peltola. Troy Lesesne said it was due to how Jackson has stepped up and some mistakes from Peltola against Montreal. Peltola did have a couple lazy moments in that game so the criticism isn’t unwarranted. Despite being young, he is a designated player on this roster. However, he represents the only healthy #6 for the team. Jackson Hopkin’s future may be in the center of midfield as opposed to the wing, but I don’t think the #6 is where he best fits. Peltola also displayed his quality coming off the bench. HIs initial pressing won the ball for DC United against Columbus and led to the Benteke goal. It will be curious if we see Lesesne roll out the same lineup or switch it back to the 4-2-3-1. If that happens, I think we see Peltola return to the lineup. However, just like Columbus, I think the 4-3-3 could fit again based off how Orlando want to play.
Can Ted be the secondary scorer?
I talked about on Monday about this team’s biggest weakness. They have got Christian Benteke going and he seems on pace to pick up 15+ goals this year if he stays healthy. However, no other player has managed to notch more than one goal. This team needs a secondary scorer as there is unlikely to be any more additions to the roster until the summer. Basically the team has settled on Christian Dajome, Jared Stroud, and Ted Ku-Dipietro as the attacking options. Both Dajome and Stroud are basically who they are at this point in their career. They could absolutely hit a purple streak, but that seems unlikely. It is highly unlikely they will become that secondary scoring option at this point. That leaves Ted as the one player who can still elevate his game. I talked about in preseason whether we would see Ted evolve from a pretty good MLS player to the next level. Right now he has had a few moments, but nothing has shown he has taken that next step. I think the formational switch has impacted his ability, and I kind of hope we see the team switch back and allow Ted to push higher up the field. Either way, he remains the top candidate to be that secondary scorer.
Prediction:
I have to say I am extremely bullish. Everything points to this being a big game for DC United. They are facing a team that has struggled to impose their will in games, and facing a team that just dominated a much better team last week playing a similar style. Orlando has had some horror games against DC both at home and on the road. Unless the week off saw any sort of major shifts in mentality, it could be long night for Orlando. I think we see the offense explode and we get a 3-0 win for DC United.