DC United enters their second straight road game before they return home to welcome the MLS’s traveling circus of Inter Miami. This time it will be against old flame Luciano Acosta and the Supporter Shield winning FC Cincinnati. The vibes are good right now for DC fans. Is this where it all ends?
Opposing Team Overview
In a way, FC Cincinnati represent what we hope this rebuild for DC United will look like. Cincinnati were a team that seemed directionless. They had a coach fired for making racist remarks and seemed to try to make big swings only to fall on their face with back to back wooden spoons. Then in steps Chris Albright and Pat Noonan. They went from a laughingstock to playoffs and then top of the league last year. They did on the back of a former DC United playmaker in Lucho Acosta on top of it, which is sort of becoming a theme here with the early matches. Can’t wait to watch Julien Gressel next week! They are a team that is going through a minor rebuild. Their elite striker Brandon Vazquez is off to Mexico with Monterrey and their left sided winger/wingback Alvaro Barreal is on loan to Brazil. They have however bolstered their defensive core, most notably by adding Miles Robinson in free agency from Atlanta United and most recently trading for DeAndre Yedlin of Inter Miami for the most specific amount of GAM in MLS history. Defensively this team will be more than solid and possibly elite with US National team players lining the back line. Remains to be seen if they can repeat their Supporter’s Shield run last year, and they have Champions Cup to contend with, which almost always drains teams early in the season.
Against Chicago and Monterrey, they are lining up in a 3-4-3. They rely on pressure from their midfield and play narrow through Acosta along with wing play from both Kubo and Yedlin/Powell to generate chances. They are a pressing team, much like DC, and rely on winning the ball and finding Acosta. Offensively, they are incredibly dangerous, but there are certainly flaws within the team. Acosta is fantastic, but lately they have Corey Baird and Aaron Bounpendza in their attack. The lack of Brendan Vazquez is a noticeable absence, especially watching Corey Baird. While Baird certainly provides an industrious and hard-working performance, he certainly lacks the clinical skill set in the final third to finish chances like Vazquez could. Aaron Bounpendza can pick up that slack, and he had a wonderful finish against Chicago from a gift from the Chicago back line. However, against Monterrey he failed to finish numerous chances for Cincinnati as they fell 1-0 in CONCACAF Champions Cup play. Sans Yedlin, Noonan rolled out the same lineup for both Chicago and Monterrey. Boupendza also suffered a scary moment early on in the Monterrey game, but powered through the full 90. If there is one player we could see rested, it could be him. That will be the biggest question for Noonan. Just how much will he rotate a side that has a match in Mexico mid-week. FC Cincinnati will be win-now and obviously want to make a Champions Cup run. Regardless, this is probably the best moment to have a distracted and tired Cincinnati team on the road.
Key Players
Luciano Acosta
When the conversation of key players comes up, you can’t ignore Luciano Acosta. The 2023 MLS MVP had an unbelievable year that is almost certainly painful for DC United fans. His creativity and ability to beat players on the dribble make him one of the best #10’s in MLS. When he is comfortable and confident, he will set up his attackers with numerous opportunities. According to FBRef, he is in the 99th percentile in shot creating actions and 96th in expected assists. In the past he has had elite talent to bury those chances, but now it is a bit suspect with Baird and Boupendza. Still he remains an elite threat and will absolutely bury DC if they give him the chance. McVey and Barttlet will undoubtably face their stiffest test trying to keep him off the scoresheet. The weak spot with him could be fatigue. It is early in the season, but we saw against Columbus in the conference final how he faded heavily down the stretch. With Champions Cup included, this will be his 5th match of the season, and that assumes he plays the full 90. If DC can weather the storm early, he could be much easily to contain.
Matt Miazga and Miles Robinson
Assuming Benteke plays, both Matt Miazga and Miles Robinson will have the duties to shut down DC’s most dangerous player. Miazga sits in the 77th percentile for aerials won. Miles Robinson sits in the 55th percentile, but remains an aerial threat and will look to disrupt and lock up Benteke. This defensive pair has looked solid to start the season, and has helped the team limit chances. In league play, the only goal they have surrendered was a penalty kick from Shaquri. Additionally, both are also extremely effective on attacking set plays. Robinson and Miazga provided numerous opportunities and Robinson himself registered a goal off a corner kick against Chicago. Combined with Bounpendza they have plenty of ariel threats to give DC’s defense headaches.
What to Watch for DC United
Benteke’s Status
As good as last week’s result against Portland was, Benteke’s injury was a major concern. In the post-game press conference, Lesesne seemed to indicate that the scratch was precautionary, and highlighted today in the mid-week press conference that he was able to train some this week. With an extra day’s rest, one would hope that precautionary rest would serve a purpose to keep him healthy for these two games. If it isn’t there, DC United’s task gets more difficult. They found ways to score last week without him, but it took a penalty kick and a late goal from the bench to get that. Until they get it from the starting eleven, goals without Benteke will remain suspect.
Who is the #10?
Another game with excellent attacking play, and another game where Pirani was noticeably absent from said chances. One could argue the game flipped toward DC when Ted Ku-Dipeitro switched to the 10 role and Fletcher went out wide. This chance highlighted by Matt Doyle shows Ted’s strengths. He tracks back to midfield wins the ball and immediately pushes forward beating players on the dribble and sets up a wonderful opportunity for Dajome. He misses the rebound but he did more chance creation in that one play than two games with Pirani in that role. I won’t say Pirani is running out time, and he will almost certainly get more opportunities. However, I won’t say his time is unlimited at that position, and Troy may look at the obvious gifts and change of pace that Ted brings and opt to play him there and slot Pirani out wide. Or the worst case scenario for Pirani would be to give upstart Kristen Fletcher his opportunity in the starting front three. Time is far from out, but the clock is officially ticking.
Santos Defensive Liability, but (for now) Offensive Necessity
Much has been made of Santos’ clear defensive liabilities right now. Many of the goals given up have at the very least begun on his side of the field or directly from getting beat by a winger. That being said, he still contributes a lot to DC United’s style right now. Switching him out for a McVey or maybe an Conner Antley could hurt DC’s positive state. Right now, unless a certain left back gets out of Lesense’s doghouse it will remain so. He leads the team and league in expected threat according to this analysis. He is even higher than Luciano Acosta over two games. While he perhaps doesn’t get noticed for his offensive actions from his role, he provides pressure and service from that position that is still excellent. DC obviously needs to find a younger replacement and cut Jeahze if he truly has no path to first team. Until then, the choices are Santos, an unproven USL player, or a winger who has looked less than convincing in that role.
Prediction
I have been mostly negative with my predictions for the year. My very specific prediction was that DC would register just one win against Miami in Feburary and March. That was blown up in week 1. Do I dare show some hope? Let me say that I think there is a with Benteke or no Benteke prediction. With Benteke I see a 2-2 draw. Without him? I don’t think Cinicinatti will have the breakdowns that Portland will have. I am going with 2-1 loss if he isn’t there. Jon is going straight up with a 1-1 draw for this match. Either way, let’s hope the good times keep rolling.