Apr 2, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Columbus Crew midfielder Aidan Morris (8) leaves the field after a red card during the second half of the Concacaf Champions Cup quarterfinal against Tigres UANL at Lower.com Field. The game ended in a 1-1 tie. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
The elation of a home win will be short lived, as DC United head to face undoubtably their toughest road match of the season. MLS Cup champion Columbus Crew have picked up pretty much where they left off last season. They are not only balancing Champions Cup, but also besting their opponents on the field. Can DC overcome and produce a shock result? Let’s talk about it.
Opponent Overview
Columbus are good, really good. They are probably without question the best team in the league, and their rise under Wilfred Nancy is one that will talked about for years. He took over in 2023 after the team parted ways with Caleb Porter at the end of 2022. They even paid a transfer fee to Montreal to release him from his contract to be the manager in Columbus. And it was most certainly one of the biggest signings of 2023. Wilfred Nancy brought a sophisticated possession style play that relies on patient build up to break down opponents and punish them through passing.
The key for DC United will be to disrupt that possession with their pressing. If they allow Columbus to pass and develop a strong foothold on the game, it could be a long night. That is easier said than done with Darlington Nagbe in center midfield. He has made his name in being a player that is almost impossible to press. He finds a way to evade pressure and progress the ball forward for his team. Paired with him is Aiden Morris, who has quickly developed into one of the best defensive midfielders in the league. He can perform the defensive duties of tackling and interceptions. He sits in 89th and 83rd percentile respectively in those numbers. He also sits in the 85th percentile in progressive passes and has a staggering 92.0% passing completion. Count on him playing on Saturday as he picked up a second yellow and suspension.
Of course things aren’t all smooth sailing in Columbus. The big question mark will be their star attacker Cucho Hernandez. Cucho remains probably the most talented and effective forward in the league. His runs are always spot on and his finishing ability is unrivaled. The only thing that might stop him is his own temperament. Wilfred Nancy has been extremely guarded about what exactly happened, but it appears to be from Cucho’s general temperament after being subbed out against Charlotte in the team’s 2-0 loss. He has been out of their past two matches including a crucial CONCACAF Champions Cup that saw them only manage a 1-1 draw against TIgres at home. If he plays, the problem gets difficult for DC United. If he is absent again then it will perhaps provide an opening for DC to pull off a shock result.
If Cucho can’t go then they will be reliant on Diego Rossi, who is still probably one of the best attackers in the league. While his numbers don’t jump off the page like Cucho, he is still a highly effective player. He will absolutely be the focal point of the team’s attack and who is likely to score the goals. Regardless of whether Cucho is out there or no Columbus will be a good team, and difficult for DC United to stop.
Storylines to Watch for DC United
Back to the 4-2-3-1?
Last game DC United unveiled a tactical shift to a 4-2-3-1. It appears the shift was situational to the game, but it could also serve this game as well. The Crew will line up in 3-4-2-1 and there could be some space high up the field that Stroud and Dajome could exploit. Also, they can potentially utilize Ted and Klich’s high pressing to pin and overwhelm the center of midfield. This could tilt the field in their favor. Regardless, the team is rotating their center backs so it is still an opportunity for Benteke to dominate in the air.
Final Third Struggles
I talked in my monthly review piece about how DC United has generated 12.5 xG. While impressive, it also comes with the fact that they have only scored nine of them. Montreal was a perfect demonstration on those struggles. DC generated the best chances, but it took a screamer from Pedro Santos to find the winner. Against Columbus they can expect to generate far fewer chances. It will be on the team to be clinical in the final third if they want to get anything out of this game.
Prediction
I think this could be a rough one for DC. Also when I predict bad results, things usually turn out better. I am gong 3-1 Columbus. I just think Columbus will be too good at home and will be looking for motivation for their return leg back in Mexico.